On November 28th 2026, four weeks from now, registered voters in Victoria (Aus) will be voting for a new state government. Victorian governments serve for a fixed four-year term, with elections being held on the last Saturday of November.
Four years ago I wrote four pieces commenting on the 2022 election:
- Election Reflections – Background
- Election Reflections – The Count
- Election Reflections – The Media
- Election Reflections – Now What?
It’s interesting to look at the last of these to see how accurate my predictions for the electoral term just ending were. Here’s what I wrote:
As the Age observes, “Victory secured, now the hard part“. We are currently facing major issues arising from Covid, the Ukraine war, a possible slump in the housing market and/or recession. The only certainty is that in four years’ time things will be very different.
By the time this was written Covid was well under control, though it’s not dead – 60 cases 7-day average as this is written. The Ukraine war, sadly, rages on. The housing market is not where a lot of people would wish it to be.
Although Dan Andrews says that he will serve a full term (which would be unwise IMO: too many politicians fall into the trap of failing to quit whilst they’re ahead) I suspect that he will step down once the metro tunnel opens in 2025, rightly seeing this as his legacy and the culmination of his government’s massive investment in infrastructure. Should Dan stand down, his likely replacement, Jacinta Allen, would then be up against the Libs newly-elected leader, John Pesutto who, unlike his predecessor, comes across well in the media. In the meantime Labor needs to note the large swings against them in some areas and address well-founded concerns re poor governance.
I was wrong about Daniel Andrews’ departure: he resigned as Premier on 27 September 2023. Metro services did start at the end of 2025. My guess that Jacinta Allen would succeed him didn’t need much insight. She did, but resigned on 28 July 2026 after less than three years, ahead of an expected leadership challenge, to be succeeded by her deputy premier, Ben Carroll who now leads the Labor Party into this election. One of his key messages has been to emphasise that this is a new start.
On the Liberal (= UK conservative) side, Matthew Guy resigned immediately after the Liberal’s disastrous defeat, John Pesutto succeeding him. He lasted just two years, to 27 December 2024, being succeeded by Brad Battin. On 17 November 2025, Battin was faced by a delegation who expressed no confidence in his leadership and declared their intent to hold a leadership spill the following day. First term MP Jess Wilson was elected unopposed to replace him. After an unsteady start, she seems to be cutting through.
Who will form our next government?
Labor has won the last three state elections, increasing its majority each time. To win
4.6 million Victorians will be eligible to vote, 44% of whom will be aged 18-44. Voting is compulsory but there’s nothing to stop anyone returning a spoiled or blank ballot paper.
The latest Roy Morgan opinion poll (late October) reported first preferences as LNP Coalition 29.5% (34.4%); ALP 22.5% (37.0%); One Nation 22% (0.2%); Greens 12.5% (11.5%); other parties and independents 13.5% 16.9%). Figures in brackets are 2022. The big change is the predicted rise of One Nation.
Assuming these figures translate to votes cast, Roy Morgan suggests that the LNP Coalition now has a significant lead over the ALP Government on a two-party preferred basis: LNP 56%, ALP 44%. The LNP would probably be able to form Government with a majority of seats. However, winning a majority of seats is not certain given the highly contested nature of many seats.
What’s different this time?
Sadly, the tone of political debate gets worse year on year. Prime Minister’s question time, broadcast live, is usually an unwatchable bear garden. To everyone’s shock in October 2026, Independent Federal MP Helen Haines sustained critical injuries, including the loss of both legs, after being struck by a driver outside her electorate office in Wangaratta in what is described as a deliberate vehicle ramming attack. Lots of politicians and their staffers have come forward telling of the threats and abuse that they have to put up with. This abuse surfaces in many social media comments.
More positively, when printed newspapers were the way in which opinion was circulated a columnist could write a very opinionated column which might draw a large response from readers. In many cases it was evident that only those which fitted the agenda might be printed. Now, when such a story appears in social media any dubious argument, selective use of statistics or straight error will be flagged, undoing the intent of the original post.
It would be nice if we could have an election marked by civil and reasoned argument, with choices being made by an informed electorate but I guess that’s too much to hope for. We shall see.